A segment of Trunk Highway 100 (T.H. 100 commonly called the "Belt Line") has served since the 1930's as a circumferential and urban distributor route on the western side of the Twin Cities metropolitan area. A segment of the proposed Interstate Freeway system, to be opened around the year 1965, will provide a new "super" Belt Line located west of the present one. This is a comparative study of the present and proposed Belt Line routes. This study has proceeded in three major steps.

First, it was shown that the present and future highways are analogous with respect to (a) their position in the western fringe of the urbanized area at time of construction and (b) their inter­section with major radial highways and railways.

Second, the pattern of commercial and industrial development of land was traced from 1940 to 1959 in the vicinity of the present Belt Line. It appears that certain retail and service establish­ments are locationally associated with residential density, certain others with highway traffic. Warehousing and manufacturing development are associated with both highway and rail access in combination. All commercial and industrial uses tend to cluster in the vicinity of intersections with major radial highways or rail­ways.

Third, on the basis of the similar locations of the two routes, it was assumed that, as available industrial land is absorbed on the present Belt Line, demand for industrial land in western circumferential highway locations will shift to the new Belt Line. It was also assumed that neighborhood-oriented and traffic-oriented commercial uses along the new route will develop, as they have along the present Belt Line, commensurate with the growth of traffic and urbanization of the neighboring land. Using these two assumptions in conjunction with the growth rates and locational characteristics established from the study of the present Belt Line, commercial and industrial uses were projected for the new route.

Planning and land-value implications of the findings of the study are discussed. It is proposed that projections of this type are of specific value in highway programming, land acquisition, and planning in the fringes of large urban areas.

The major findings and conclusions of this study can be discussed under two principal headings: Planning Implications and Highway Land acquisition in Urbanizing Areas. For maps indicating the highways which were studied and their location within the Minneapolis-St. Paul metropolitan complex, the reader is referred to Figures 1 and 2, pages 10 and 13, in the body of the text. Figure 3, on page 14, shows the location of suburban communities which are mentioned in the following discussion.

Highway's Role in Area Development. Much commercial and industrial growth today is near major highways. Because of this obvious association it often seems fitting to attribute that growth simply to the highways. But that is an oversimplification.

The construction or up-grading of T.H. 100 was one vital factor in a developmental process. Besides the highway, these factors were significant: (1) residential and neighborhood shopping center developers, (2) industries and industrial developers, (3) municipalities which organize, build, and maintain the network of local streets and thoroughfares, sewer and water lines, and (4) railroads. These factors have formed a complex within which the commercial and industrial development process has moved forward.

The chronological order in which these five agents have appeared in the developmental process has varied. In the southern part of the city of St. Louis Park and the northern part of the village of Edina, the order of development along the Belt Line was:

Examples of these and other possible sequences could be cited from other areas. In general the railroad has come first in the developmental sequence; and rail, highway, and sewer--in any order--have preceded significant manufacturing and warehousing growth. Aside from these preconditions, however, any sequential combination of the five developmental factors is plausible.

The Timing of Highway Construction in the Developmental Sequence. If the highway comes late in the developmental sequence, it is impossible to avoid disruption of an established urban land-use pattern. Then planning by affected municipalities must be directed toward retention of values, adjustment, and redevelopment. If the highway comes early in the sequence, municipal and private planning may be directed toward reservation of vacant land and provision of facilities for the highest-value, most desirable, or most essential uses in the most probable locations.

These variations in sequence and timing stem in large part from the fact that various agents in the developmental process are operating with basically different geographical ideas. The concern of residential developers municipalities and their residents has been local.

Their task has been the expansion of the metropolis. Their geographical frame of reference has been the neighborhood, the municipality, or at most the metropolitan area. The major objective of the railway or highway builder has been interstate or intercity movement. To the municipality and developers the city has been the "universe".

To railway and highway builders the city has often been a large "place" to be connected with many other distant and equally important "places". Each group represents an important point of view held by a large segment of the public. Each group must understand the geographical frame of reference and the point of view of the other if there is to be an agreed plan of development in any community bordering a major highway.

Development Along Trunk Highway (Interstate Route) 494. On proposed T.H. (I. R.) 494, the new Belt Line, the highway will be introduced at an early stage in the developmental process. The route has been well chosen to minimize the disturbance of already-urbanized land in the circumvention of the irregular western edge of the metropolitan mass. Thus, planning along the route can be concentrated mainly upon reservation of land and provision of facilities for the best and most probable uses.

Demand for manufacturing and warehousing land is probable in the vicinity of certain rail-highway locations along T.H. (I.R.) 494, especially (1) between T.H. 55 and T.H. 12 and (2) near the interchange of T.H. (I.R.) 494, T.H. 100 and the Minneapolis, Northfield, and Southern Railway. In those areas there is a need to reserve land, to provide sewers and local streets to feed major highways, and to prepare for metropolitan and intercity traffic stimulated by industrial land uses concentrated near the highways.

There is a need for similar preparations for commercial development and accompanying focusing of traffic at all interchanges, particularly those in the path of maximum urban expansion--the interchanges with T.H. 169, T.H. 7, County State Aid Highway (CSAH) 5, T.H. 12, and T.H. 55. Although no frontage roads are contemplated on T.H. (I.R.) 494 at present, it may be necessary to introduce them in the vicinity of a few major intersections to provide for the most efficient use of the land.

A policy should be developed toward the large amount of land which fronts the major highways but is extremely unlikely to be demanded for commercial or industrial use (Figure 39). This study has shown that more than 1,000 acres adjoining the proposed T.H. (I.R.) 494, and within 2,500 feet of a major highway intersection, probably will not be demanded for commercial purposes. Even mo re such land lies outside the 2,500-foot range. This land will ultimately be used for

residential or public purposes, or it will be unused. Lessons may be drawn from the experience of parts of Edina, St. Louis Park, and Golden Valley. There, various combinations of natural features, plantings, and subdivision design have segregated high-value residential developments from the main traffic artery and created amenity for both residents and travelers. Highway developers, municipalities, and private residential developers can plan cooperatively to achieve the same results along T.H. (I.R.) 494.

Highway Land Acquisition

The area through which T.H. (I.R.) 494 will pass is certain to undergo accelerated urban development in the next two decades. The highway program is only one contributor to the inexorable urban growth process. The cost of land along the route may be expected to rise throughout the period of urbanization. The urbanizing process increases the need for a highway. It also increases the cost of providing right-of-way for a highway as time passes. The purchase of all necessary land for this route now would have been wise even if the highway were not to be built up to ultimate design standards for another Present and projected land values. 15 years. There is a need for continuing study and projection of urbanized areas and their land-use patterns to know where highway needs and land acquisition problems are going to intensify. There is also a. need to consider longer-range highway planning and a lengthening of the time span between land acquisition and completed construction.

The acquisition of land for T.H. (I.R.) 494 is taking place in the vicinity of the advancing metropolitan frontier. The real value of land today in this changing frontier zone depends basically upon two variables: (1) the value of land for its probable next major use and (2) the annual taxes and interest for the duration of the waiting time likely to elapse before the next major use is realized. The longer the waiting time, the lower is today's real value. The higher the next major use, the greater is today's real value. This study has attempted to estimate the limits of probable waiting time and probable ultimate uses along T.H. (I.R.) 494. Thus it may contribute to the determination of land values for highway-land acquisition.

The study exemplifies a type of data and analysis which could be obtained readily at any time for any area included within a continuing geographical survey of land uses. This argues for frequent updating of the land-use inventory and forecast prepared as part of the Twin Cities Area Transportation Study. This would provide information of value in highway planning, land acquisition, and programming. Observed land-use trends are the resultants of a bewildering complex of social, economic, and technologic forces. The rate of these trends is subject to change almost without notice. This is a further argument for frequent updating of the land-use inventory and frequent review and revision of projections.