In general, the later the development has come, the higher the value of the average manufacturing or warehousing establishment. In the earlier developments the typical establishments and land parcels have tended to be more numerous but smaller and of lower value. When the highway preceded widespread urbanization, development has been relatively slow. Where urbanization and accompanying public sewer facilities preceded the highway, industrial development has followed more quickly.
The highway, urbanization, and industrial development.


Figure 28. -- Examples of commercial or industrial establishments in Building Class I.


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8. The Diminishing Area of Potential Industrial Land

Table 12 and the graph in Figure 30 show the rate at which land has been developed for manufacturing and warehousing purposes in the study strip since the Belt Line was opened. One may assume that this represents the general demand for land for those two major uses in the vicinity of a major circumferential highway in the western quadrant of the Twin Cities metropolitan area. The demand has been produced by economic growth of the region in combination with the shift of established firms from old or obsolete buildings and locations in the central city.
The demand for land for manufacturing and warehousing purposes.


Figure 29. -- Examples of commercial and industrial establishments in Building Class II.


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Total manufacturing and warehousing development through 1959 occupied 288 acres of land in the Belt Line study strip. The rate of land development has been particularly rapid in the past five years.


Figure 30. -- Past and Projected Growth of Developed Acreage for Industrial Uses in the T.H. 100 Study Strip.


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If development is projected at recent rates, it is possible to estimate the time at which the land supply will be exhausted for this particular type of development in the vicinity of this particular circumferential highway.
Estimating when the land supply will be depleted.

It must be emphasized, of course, that the growth which has been observed and projected is a resultant of a bewildering complex of technologic, economic, and social legacies, fads, and decisions operating at local, national, and world levels, The component forces producing this observed growth are subject to frequent change, often

Table 12 -- The Past and Projected Demand for Warehousing and Manufacturing Land in the T. H. 100 Study Strip
Year Cumulative Past and Projected Demand Manufacturing & Warehousing Acreage Cumulative Past and Projected Development of Manufacturing & Warehousing Acreage Remaining First Class Land in Study Strip "Excess Demand" to be transferred to alternate location
1940 49 48 442 0
1945 48 48 442 0
1951 87 87 403 0
1953 114 114 376 0
1957 218 218 272 0
1959 288 288 202 0
1964 476 476 0 0
Projected Time of Depletion of Supply of First Class Potential Industrial Land - 1964
1965 496 490 0 6
1970 679 600 0 79
1975 862 646 0 216
1980 1045 646 0 399


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without notice. Some of the changes, which may come, patently cannot be anticipated because they will depend upon knowledge which lies in the future. Thus the projections undertaken here should be subjected to regular review and revision. They should be part of a continuing study.

 

The growth rate of manufacturing-warehousing land use in the study strip was projected forward two decades, to 1980. The 1957-59 growth rate was used, and increased at a rate of 4 per cent per five-year period to allow for a projected increase in the rate of


Figure 31. -- An example of land which this report excludes from the "potential commercial-industrial" class because of poor drainage conditions, east side of Highway 100 south of 79th Street (see map, Figure 3).


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growth of metropolitan population.8  In other words, the extrapolation assumes that (1) the rates of economic growth and industrial relocation which have characterized this metropolitan area in recent years will continue; (2) the growth and relocation rate are related to the total population growth of the metropolitan area, and (3) the proportion of metropolitan demand for industrial land which has accrued to the major western circumferential highway locations will continue to accrue to the same type of location.
Assumptions underlying the projections of land demand.





8 The most detailed and readily available population projections appear in the Twin Cities Metropolitan Planning Commission's Population Study, 1959.


Figure 32. -- Land too rough for industrial or commercial development, Golden Valley.


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The assumption of continued economic growth also underlies the projection of highway need as well as these land-use projections. Growth calls for continued replacement and expansion of warehousing and manufacturing to serve the city and the region, just as it calls for expansion of the road network. Steady, though unspectacular, growth has characterized the Twin Cities metropolitan area since the beginning of this century. The directional growth trends have changed very little in a century. They appear to be related to certain terrain patterns, the positions of St. Paul and Minneapolis rela­tive to each other and relative to the Twin Cities

9 J. R. Borchert, op. cit.


Figure 33. -- An example of open land which this report excludes from the "potential commercial-industrial" class because of the adjacent, actively-building residential area shown in the picture, Golden Valley.


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All of these factors are quite stable. Hence it is unlikely that the position of the western quadrant within the metropolitan growth pattern will change greatly.

The growth of manufacturing and warehousing use was projected against ceilings which were estimated from the amount of vacant land remaining in the study strip.
Growth of manufacturing and warehousing uses.

A total vacant land figure was estimated from plat maps. From the total was subtracted that land which is wet or too rough (more than 50 feet local relief in a 10-acre grid - Figures 31 and 32) and land which is likely to be used for residential rather than industrial purposes. Vacant parcels defined as "probably residential" are either zoned as residential today, adjoined on at least two sides (within 500 feet) by an existing residential area, or adjoined on one side by an actively-building residential area (Figure 33).
Classifying land areas.

The remaining, likely nonresidential parcels were then classified according to their distance from the nearest major highway and railway. Within 1,000 feet of a major highway, 188 acres of probable nonresidential land remain less than 1, 000 feet from an existing rail line, less than 2,500 feet from a major highway intersection, or both. That 188 acres was defined as the "first class" land remaining for industrial development. Another 211 vacant acres remain more than 1, 000 feet from a major highway but less than 2,500 feet from a major intersection, less than 1, 000 feet from a rail line, or both.
Land defined as "marginal".


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