These 211 acres were defined as "marginal" land for industrial development.¹⁰

There is an additional area of approximately 750 acres which is vacant and would be classified as "probably nonresidential" (by the above definition). However industrial building is unlikely because that land is located too far from either a major highway or railway line, or it is too rough for development (if past practice on the Belt Line is continued).

According to the extrapolation, the ceiling of first class land will be reached in 1964 (Table 12 and Figure 30). It was assumed that after that date only land defined as locationally marginal will be available, and the rate of development will decrease as a result. Thus, after 1965 the growth curve was decelerated at the same rate at which it accelerated during the earlier period of development. As a result, the projected growth approaches the ceiling of marginal land less rapidly after 1965, and much less rapidly after 1975.

After 1965 there is a widening difference between the projected curve of demand for land on a western circumferential and the projected development in the vicinity of Highway 100. That difference

¹⁰ Land at the south end of the study strip, in the vicinity of the intersection of the Belt Line and T.H. 5, was excluded from the estimates of remaining land. That intersection is as far from the Minneapolis CBD as certain others on the new T.H. (I.R.) 494 will be. In fact, it will be on T.H. (I.R.) 494. It has therefore been treated in this study as one of several equally-accessible, available areas on T.H. (I.R.) 494, to which excess demand will be transferred when other, more accessible Belt Line sites are filled.

is assumed to be "surplus" demand, available for "transfer" to a new circumferential route. The rate of growth of that theoretical surplus demand is also indicated in Figure 19 and Table 12. The picture which emerges shows available "first class" acreage within the study strip being quickly occupied. Demand for such land will persist after the existing supply near T.H. 100 is depleted. It seems probable that this demand will overflow into some similar area. By assuming that the similar area will be the strip along T.H. (I.R.) 494, the following section of this report attempts to estimate the likely amount, location, and timing of manufacturing and warehousing development there.

Figure 34. -- Potential demand for land for retail and service uses in T.H. (I.R.) 494 study strip, based on projected traffic volume and residential development.

The assumption of "transfer of surplus demand" from T.H. 100 to T.H. (I.R.) 494 rests upon the analogy of the two routes which was discussed earlier in this report. The assumption would have to be modified if a different highway building agency were to construct still another "belt line", west of T.H. 100 but not as far west as| T.H. (I.R.) 494. To a very limited extent CSAH 18 occupies that kind of position. The assumption is also invalidated if land clearance in the central cities should divert industrial relocation and expansion to more central locations and away from the suburbs. There is no evident trend in this direction at this time, but the possibility should not be overlooked.

Figure 35. -- Potential demand for land for industrial uses in T.H. (I.R.) 494 study strip, based on projected excess of demand over supply in Highway 100 study strip.

No attempt has been made to project the demand for land for retail and service uses on T.H. 100. The growth of those uses is related to traffic on T.H. 100, itself, and to residential development in that area. Such demand cannot be shifted from T.H. 100 to any other highway. It is assumed only that growth of retail and service uses on T.H. 100 will continue in response to increasing traffic and residential growth as long as there is land available to accommodate them.

9. The New Belt Line -- T.H. (I.R.) 494

Figures 1, 2, and 3 indicate the route of the new "super" Belt Line, T.H. (I.R.) 494. It will be roughly parallel to the old Belt Line and approximately five miles farther west. It will turn eastward and join the present T.H. 100 at 78th Street, the south end of the study strip covered by the preceding major section of this report. The entire segment of T.H. (I. R.) 494 will be built to Freeway standards, access will be restricted, and at present no frontage roads are contemplated.

In order to examine and project the land-use pattern on T.H. (I.R.) 494, a second study strip was created. It is shown on the map in Figure 22. The strip embraces all of the land within 2,500 feet of the proposed highway, extending from a point near its northern terminus at the junction with proposed T.H. (I.R.) 494, southward to its junction with T.H. 100, the present Belt Line. An attempt has been made to project the demand for land in this study strip.

Projected Land Uses

Retail and Service Uses. On the basis of projected residential expansion,¹¹ it was estimated that the increase in number of dwelling units in the T.H. (I. R.) 494 study strip in the ten years from 1970 to 1980 will approximate the increase in the T.H. 100 strip during the six year period of explosive growth between 1945 and 1951. Shopping-center uses (neighborhood-oriented retail and service functions) on T.H. 100 expanded at an average rate of 3.0 acres per year from 1945 to 1951. Thus an aggregate rate about two-thirds as great, or about 2.0 acres per year is appropriate for the longer period on T.H. (I.R.) 494. That rate was applied arbitrarily to T.H. (I.R.) 494 from the date of opening (1965) forward to 1980.

Traffic projections for 1980 were obtained from the Twin Cities Area Transportation Study (TCATS) which is currently being compiled by the Minnesota Highway Department and U.S. Bureau of Public Roads. Projected 1980 traffic volume on T.H. (I.R.) 494 approximates that on T.H. 100 in 1960. Thus traffic-induced land uses -- the highway-oriented retail and service establishments--may be expected to grow in the vicinity of T.H. (I. R.) 494 from 1965 to 1980 at about the same rate as they have grown in the T.H. 100 study strip from 1945 to 1959. That rate has averaged approximately 7.0 acres per year. There has been no clear trend either upward or downward in average annual growth over that 14-year period.

¹¹ See J. R. Borchert, ibid.

Thus the combined demand for shopping center and highway-oriented uses can be projected at an average rate of 9.0 acres per year along the T.H. (I.R.) 494 study strip from 1965 to 1980. That figure is based upon projections of traffic volume and residential growth, and it assumes that relationships between those variables will be similar to the relationships which have occurred along T.H. 100. If there are no access roads on T.H. 494, these establishments will be forced to locate exclusively on the radial highways near the intersections with T.H. (I.R.) 494. If access is also restricted on the major radials, this type of development may be frustrated unless frontage roads or some other provisions are planned.

Manufacturing and Warehousing.  It was assumed that the demand for land for warehousing and manufacturing establishments on T.H. (I.R.) 494 will develop from the same causes as the demand for land for that purpose on T.H. 100. It was further assumed that demand for a western circumferential highway location will shift after 1965 from T.H. 100 to T.H. (I.R.) 494, as the former becomes completely built-up and the latter is opened to traffic. Therefore, the "excess" demand for manufacturing and warehousing land, which had been projected for T.H. 100 (Figure 30 and Table 12), was applied to the T.H. (I.R.) 494 study strip.

Table 13 and the graphs in Figures 34 and 35 indicate the projected growth rate for the two broad classes of commercial and in-

dustrial land uses--manufacturing, warehousing and re tail-services--for T.H. (I.R.) 494. The projection builds upon the present base. Existing commercial and industrial land uses are shown on the map in Figure 36. They consist of only a few highway-oriented retail and service establishments and several sand and gravel pits. The present uses have developed at an aggregate average rate of only a little more than one acre per year for more than three decades. Growth is projected at that slow rate until 1965, at which time it is assumed that the new highway will be open. Thereafter, the growth rates are determined by the projection of excess manufacturing and warehousing land demand from T.H. 100, together with the projection of residential growth and traffic along T.H. (I.R.) 494.

Probable Sites and Locations

Evaluation of Sites. After the major land uses along T.H. (I.R.) 494 had been projected, the land in the study strip was appraised for its suitability for commercial and industrial development. First, physical site characteristics were considered. In the T.H. 100 study strip, land with more than 30 feet of local relief per 10-

acre grid square was marginal for commercial or industrial development (see page 17) and there was no commercial or industrial development where local relief exceeded 50 feet. Development has also avoided swamp or marsh land, and it has been inhibited or prevented in areas of pre-existing residential use.