The study strip along T.H. (I.R.) 494 was then divided into 10-acre grids. Aerial photographs, topographic maps, and field checks were used to determine the fraction of each grid devoted to urban uses, farmsteads, crops and pasture, woods, swamp or marsh. The local relief was also determined for each grid. These attributes were mapped. Those grid squares were then selected which have no

lake or swamp, less than fifty feet of local relief, and no more than one-half of their area already occupied by nonfarm structures. These grids were considered eligible for possible commercial or industrial use. They were divided into two groups, and those two groups were further subdivided as follows:

A. Vacant land for potential large developments (10-acre grid square entirely free of existing urban uses).

1. "1st Class" less than 30 feet local relief,
2. "2nd Class" 30 to 50 feet local relief.

B. Vacant land for potential smaller developments (10-acre grid square at least one-half free of existing urban uses).
1. "1st Class" less than 30 feet local relief.
2. "2nd Class" 30 to 50 feet local relief.

Because of the large and growing average size of parcel for manufacturing and warehousing, only group A, above, was considered as potentially suitable for those uses. The classes of physical site conditions listed above are mapped in Figure 36.

Evaluation of Locations. Various classes of location are also shown on the map in Figure 36. Grids more than 1, 000 feet from a major highway are eliminated from consideration. (A "major highway" is a highway whose 1980 average traffic is projected in excess of 5,000 vehicles daily¹² and one which will have a traffic interchange with T.H. (I.R.) 494.)

¹² Traffic projections for state highways from Minnesota Highway Department; projections for county highways from "Highway Planning for Hennepin County, Minnesota", George W. Barton and Associates, Evanston, Ill., 1959.

Existing and potential areas for commercial and industrial development in the T.H. (I.R.) 494 study strip. The largest amount of highway-trackage land, least built-up and nearest the Minneapolis CBD, is concentrated in the vicinity of the junctions of T.H. (I.R.) 494 with T.H. 12, T.H. 55, and T.H. 100.

All potential locations indicated on the map in Figure 36 are within 1,000 feet of a major highway. Potential retail and service use districts are shown within 2,500 feet of major highway interchanges. Also, three classes of potential manufacturing or warehousing locations are indicated. One class includes land within 1,000 feet of a railway line. That is the distance which embraces most manufacturing and warehousing establishments along T. H. 100 today. The second class includes all land between 1,000 and 3,500 feet from a railway line--the range embracing the largest establishments on the Belt Line today. A third class includes land between 3,500 and 6,000 feet from a railway track--the range within which a large industrial park, comparable to the largest in America, could be developed.

Figure 37. -- Aerial view of the Route 494 study strip northward from T. H. 12, showing the largest area of level or gently-rolling, open land nearest the Minneapolis CBD.

The geographic location of vacant acreages of first and second class sites is shown in the map in Figure 36. The information on the map is summarized in Table 14-17. The acreage figures in the tables are, of course, suggestive of order of magnitude; they are not definitive.

Probable Development. Certain conclusions are clear from the map and tables. With regard to manufacturing and warehousing development, two major points emerge. (1) There is not a large discrepancy between the amount of suitable land (in terms of both site and location) and the potential demand for land over the next two decades. Land which is suitable is likely to be in demand. (2) The major concentrations of suitable land are located in the part of the

Figure 38. -- Aerial view of the Route 494 study strip in the vicinity of the intersection with the Minneapolis and St. Louis Railway (Peoria line) and the Milwaukee Railroad. Rough terrain may be expected to inhibit commercial or industrial development in this area.

could be called "potential commercial land". This compares with a projected demand of only 135 acres of new land for retail and service uses over the next two decades. Thus there is a danger of overzoning for retail and service uses in the T.H. (I.R.) 494 strip. A total of 188 acres are already zoned for commercial uses; however, they are located at only two major intersections. While those will be the sites of two important interchanges, the projected traffic pattern and the residential development pattern suggest that at least half of the pressure for shopping center and highway-oriented uses along T.H. (I.R.) 494 will come at the other major interchanges. Thus the vicinity of the future interchanges at T.H. 12, T.H. 212, and T.H. 169 appear to be already somewhat over zoned for commercial purposes.

In light of the historical geography of the present Belt Line, one may make some further estimates of probable patterns of development in the 494 strip. Earlier development and smaller establishments may be expected to cluster on the major radial routes where access is available. Developments with land fronting on T.H. (I.R.) 494 will have to plan and provide a system of service roads or streets. Those developments are likely to be larger, costlier, and more systematically planned and executed. Major commercial and industrial developments will be limited to the times and places in which public sewers, and perhaps water, are available. Finally, commercial

and industrial development will not begin nearest the highway intersections or highway-rail crossings and spread outward. Rather it will spread thinly at first, generally within 1,000 to 2,500 feet from the intersections; then the concentration of establishments will gradually increase.

Review of Findings and Conclusions

The reader is referred to the preface of this report for a review and discussion of major findings and a statement of conclusions.